Mohamed El-Erian

Wow, that's a really difficult question because there's so much uncertainty about the war.

Wow, that's a really difficult question because there's so much uncertainty about the war.

But let me think in terms of the four phases.

But let me think in terms of the four phases.

And we are now, the U.S.

And we are now, the U.S.

in phase two and phase three elsewhere.

in phase two and phase three elsewhere.

While we started the year well, we got a massive shock in the shape of the war.

While we started the year well, we got a massive shock in the shape of the war.

We had the first phase, which is done, and we are living with it, higher energy prices than would have been otherwise and higher interest rates than would have been otherwise.

We had the first phase, which is done, and we are living with it, higher energy prices than would have been otherwise and higher interest rates than would have been otherwise.

We then got phase two, which is more inflation in the pipeline.

We then got phase two, which is more inflation in the pipeline.

That's where the U.S.

That's where the U.S.

is now as the largest economy.

is now as the largest economy.

Parts of Asia, unfortunately, have moved to phase three,

Parts of Asia, unfortunately, have moved to phase three,