Morgan Housel
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
That's probably right.
And what's interesting about it is if you go back to 2016 when I joined,
The companies that were going to be our obvious winners weren't, and most of them don't exist anymore.
And the companies that did just explode, upstart, were companies that were like, oh, that's a cool company.
They're doing some cool things.
But never in a million years would we have thought this was going to be it.
So not only is it a small minority of companies that are your winners, but similar to what Mona said, you don't even know which ones those are going to be.
It's very difficult to know in real time.
And nobody saw that coming.
I didn't see it coming.
The publishers didn't see it coming.
I've said this a million times before, but every US publisher turned it down.
Every single US publisher rejected it.
And I don't fault them.
It's impossible to know what's going to work before it comes out.
It's hard to know because there's not a lot of, if you're looking at the last 10 or 15 years, there's pretty good industry data that you can compare across time.
But if you go back 100 years, you're dealing with like the data sources are so all over the place.
Not many.
I don't know, probably five, something like that.
No, I think I'm being very honest.