Morgan Housel

Everything that you're saying could easily happen.

And so this is not you and I debating separate points.

I just think the economy is so unbelievably complex that anytime you say, because of A, we're gonna have B and then C and then D, it almost never works like that.

And if you're familiar with the history of economic forecasts, it's the most humbling thing in the world.

The smartest people making the most logical predictions, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

It's the most humbling profession that's ever existed.

Even if you're saying things that are so unbelievably, like how could that not be the case?

I was one of the people in 2008 who said dollar is doomed, printing way too much money because of the financial crisis, way too much debt, bailing out the banks, bailing out the auto companies.

It's never gonna end.

That was me.

I wrote about it.

So you can go find those articles.

I wrote about that in that period.

And I felt very confident about that.

And I think what I didn't appreciate then that I do now is the complexity of it.

It is just unbelievably complex.

It's the most complicated system that we have in the world.

There's 8 billion people.

There's 25 million businesses in the world all interacting, different languages, different cultures, different wants, different needs, different time horizons, all interacting together.

New politicians every two years, new presidents every four to eight years.