Nate Cohn

Large elements of our society at this point have stayed on the sideline. They haven't really forcefully spoken out against the president. And as it becomes clear that a large share of the public disapproves of the president, people feel more emboldened to come out against him.

Large elements of our society at this point have stayed on the sideline. They haven't really forcefully spoken out against the president. And as it becomes clear that a large share of the public disapproves of the president, people feel more emboldened to come out against him.

Yeah, I mean, we live in a democracy that values public opinion in some deep way. No one likes polling, but everyone really cares about whether a majority of the country is on your side. And there is a moral weight to having a majority of the country on your side. There was moral weight to Trump winning the popular vote, for instance, that he didn't possess in 2016.

Yeah, I mean, we live in a democracy that values public opinion in some deep way. No one likes polling, but everyone really cares about whether a majority of the country is on your side. And there is a moral weight to having a majority of the country on your side. There was moral weight to Trump winning the popular vote, for instance, that he didn't possess in 2016.

And that gets taken away from him here. And I think that there will be practical consequence to that, especially given the breadth of his ambitions.

And that gets taken away from him here. And I think that there will be practical consequence to that, especially given the breadth of his ambitions.

Yeah, and as I alluded to, the Republicans have a very narrow majority in the House, and that creates two major risks to them. One is that they could lose control of the chamber in an election. The poll, by the way, found Democrats with a lead on what we call the generic ballot, which is the question asking whether you want Democrats or Republicans to control Congress.

Yeah, and as I alluded to, the Republicans have a very narrow majority in the House, and that creates two major risks to them. One is that they could lose control of the chamber in an election. The poll, by the way, found Democrats with a lead on what we call the generic ballot, which is the question asking whether you want Democrats or Republicans to control Congress.

And they want Democrats to control Congress. So that's one risk. The second risk is that even if the Republicans have controlled Congress until November 2028, He may not have a governing majority in the House if he can't keep nearly every member of the chamber in line.

And they want Democrats to control Congress. So that's one risk. The second risk is that even if the Republicans have controlled Congress until November 2028, He may not have a governing majority in the House if he can't keep nearly every member of the chamber in line.

And as the president's approval rating sinks, there are greater incentives for moderate Republicans from districts that voted for Kamala Harris or only but narrowly voted for Donald Trump to defy the president in their pursuit of reelection.

And as the president's approval rating sinks, there are greater incentives for moderate Republicans from districts that voted for Kamala Harris or only but narrowly voted for Donald Trump to defy the president in their pursuit of reelection.

And there may just be genuinely skeptical members of Congress who feel emboldened to oppose his agenda on the merits because they know that the president is weak. That would threaten his ability to extend his tax cuts, to slash entitlement programs, or anything else he may want from the Congress.

And there may just be genuinely skeptical members of Congress who feel emboldened to oppose his agenda on the merits because they know that the president is weak. That would threaten his ability to extend his tax cuts, to slash entitlement programs, or anything else he may want from the Congress.

And then the president could find himself almost as like a lame duck sooner than later if the trends in the poll were to continue.

And then the president could find himself almost as like a lame duck sooner than later if the trends in the poll were to continue.

Exactly. And there are other organizations and people and institutions who might be likelier to resist President Trump than they would if he had a 55 percent approval rating, a law firm under attack, a university. The judiciary, all of these groups are ever so subtly affected by whether they feel like they have the wind of public opinion at their back.

Exactly. And there are other organizations and people and institutions who might be likelier to resist President Trump than they would if he had a 55 percent approval rating, a law firm under attack, a university. The judiciary, all of these groups are ever so subtly affected by whether they feel like they have the wind of public opinion at their back.

And as the president's ratings sink, I think they become likelier, maybe even only slightly likelier, but likelier nonetheless. to oppose the president.

And as the president's ratings sink, I think they become likelier, maybe even only slightly likelier, but likelier nonetheless. to oppose the president.