Nate Cohn

If you're 26 years old today, you've spent almost your entire life in a post 9-11 world where the United States has been engaged in military conflicts abroad.

And one of the most important reasons why you might have supported Donald Trump in 2024 was because he promised to keep the U.S.

out of war.

And now the United States is entangled in the Middle East yet again.

Many Latino voters, they didn't necessarily support.

support Donald Trump because of his position on immigration.

Maybe in some cases they supported him despite that position.

And maybe in some cases, Latino voters who backed Donald Trump sympathize with the critique of the Biden era immigration policy that led to many millions of people entering the United States without authorization.

But when they backed Donald Trump, they were not necessarily doing so because they anticipated

ICE entering Minneapolis or sending people to overseas detention camps in El Salvador and the other excesses of the Trump administration's immigration policy.

So I think you can tell a pretty easy story about how all of the major issues that have defined Trump's terms so far have had a strong effect on his support among these particular groups.

Well, if I may, I think it will probably contribute to apathy.

It would not surprise me to see many of these Trump voters stay home rather than cast a ballot for the Democrats.

That said, when we ask voters who they intend to vote for in the midterm election, the Democrats have built a significant 10-point lead in this poll.

Wow.

That's very meaningful.

It's very meaningful.

It's much larger, by the way, than all of our prior polls this cycle.

And that lead is built in no small part on the Democrats reclaiming and even expanding upon their traditional advantage among young and non-white voters.

They're up by nearly 40 points among 18 to 29-year-olds, for instance.