Nate Silver

speaker

353 appearances 7 recordings 2 series first heard Sep 2026 last heard 2d ago

Nate Silver’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 7 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 7.

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It's like in an NBA game, it's like one point being scored or two points being scored.

You take it from Knicks ahead by a point to the Raptors ahead by a point or whatever else.

So when you're near 50-50...

Small moves affect the probabilities a fair bit.

That's getting a little technical.

There are a couple of things that have happened.

One is that we've started to get more polls among likely voters and not just registered voters.

And that matters because turnout is relatively low in midterms, higher than it used to be.

But as our model has been adjusting to those, earlier in the cycle, it felt like there was a bigger... I don't know if it has feelings.

I guess we use AI, right?

Maybe...

Stop anthropomorphizing models, Nate.

I used to be an anti-anthropomorphizer, and now just you say, oh, the model thinks.

Anyway, as we've gotten more generic ballot polls among likely voters, they don't show quite as much of an enthusiasm gap.

I mean, I'm being too technical.

know, I switched from Claude to ChetchyPT in the middle of Flipper.

Because it was trying to

The Claude Opuses were kind of weird, right?

They would, like, they'd be quite stubborn and lazy.

What is a

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