Nathan Lambert

Less than 10 years or five years to above, right? China will win because of these restrictions long term unless AI does something in the short term, which I believe AI will do, you know, make massive changes to society in the medium short term, right? And so that's the big unlocker there. And even today, right, if Xi Jinping decided to get, you know, quote unquote, scale-pilled, right, i.e.

Less than 10 years or five years to above, right? China will win because of these restrictions long term unless AI does something in the short term, which I believe AI will do, you know, make massive changes to society in the medium short term, right? And so that's the big unlocker there. And even today, right, if Xi Jinping decided to get, you know, quote unquote, scale-pilled, right, i.e.

Less than 10 years or five years to above, right? China will win because of these restrictions long term unless AI does something in the short term, which I believe AI will do, you know, make massive changes to society in the medium short term, right? And so that's the big unlocker there. And even today, right, if Xi Jinping decided to get, you know, quote unquote, scale-pilled, right, i.e.

decide that scaling laws are what matters, right, just like the U.S. executives like Satya Nadella and Mark Zuckerberg and Sundar and all these U.S.

decide that scaling laws are what matters, right, just like the U.S. executives like Satya Nadella and Mark Zuckerberg and Sundar and all these U.S.

decide that scaling laws are what matters, right, just like the U.S. executives like Satya Nadella and Mark Zuckerberg and Sundar and all these U.S.

executives of the biggest, most powerful tech companies have decided they're scale-pilled and they're building multi-gigawatt data centers, right, whether it's in Texas or Louisiana or Wisconsin, wherever it is, they're building these massive things that cost millions of dollars. as much as their entire budget for spending on data centers globally in one spot, right?

executives of the biggest, most powerful tech companies have decided they're scale-pilled and they're building multi-gigawatt data centers, right, whether it's in Texas or Louisiana or Wisconsin, wherever it is, they're building these massive things that cost millions of dollars. as much as their entire budget for spending on data centers globally in one spot, right?

executives of the biggest, most powerful tech companies have decided they're scale-pilled and they're building multi-gigawatt data centers, right, whether it's in Texas or Louisiana or Wisconsin, wherever it is, they're building these massive things that cost millions of dollars. as much as their entire budget for spending on data centers globally in one spot, right?

This is what they've committed to for next year, year after, et cetera. And so they're so convinced that this is the way, that this is what they're doing. But if China decided to, they could do it faster than us. But this is where the restrictions come in. It is not clear that China as a whole has decided, you know, from the highest levels that this is a priority. The U.S. sort of has, right?

This is what they've committed to for next year, year after, et cetera. And so they're so convinced that this is the way, that this is what they're doing. But if China decided to, they could do it faster than us. But this is where the restrictions come in. It is not clear that China as a whole has decided, you know, from the highest levels that this is a priority. The U.S. sort of has, right?

This is what they've committed to for next year, year after, et cetera. And so they're so convinced that this is the way, that this is what they're doing. But if China decided to, they could do it faster than us. But this is where the restrictions come in. It is not clear that China as a whole has decided, you know, from the highest levels that this is a priority. The U.S. sort of has, right?

You know, you see Trump talking about DeepSeek and Stargate within the same week, right? And the Biden admin as well had a lot of discussions about AI and such. It's clear that they think about it. Only just last week did DeepSeek meet the second in command of China, right? Like they have not even met the top, right? They haven't met Xi. Xi hasn't sat down.

You know, you see Trump talking about DeepSeek and Stargate within the same week, right? And the Biden admin as well had a lot of discussions about AI and such. It's clear that they think about it. Only just last week did DeepSeek meet the second in command of China, right? Like they have not even met the top, right? They haven't met Xi. Xi hasn't sat down.

You know, you see Trump talking about DeepSeek and Stargate within the same week, right? And the Biden admin as well had a lot of discussions about AI and such. It's clear that they think about it. Only just last week did DeepSeek meet the second in command of China, right? Like they have not even met the top, right? They haven't met Xi. Xi hasn't sat down.

And they only just released a subsidy of a trillion RMB, you know, roughly $160 billion, which is closer to the spending of like Microsoft and Meta and Google combined, right, for this year. So it's like they're realizing it just now, but... But that's where these export restrictions come in and say, hey, you can't ship the most powerful US chips to China. You can ship a cut down version.

And they only just released a subsidy of a trillion RMB, you know, roughly $160 billion, which is closer to the spending of like Microsoft and Meta and Google combined, right, for this year. So it's like they're realizing it just now, but... But that's where these export restrictions come in and say, hey, you can't ship the most powerful US chips to China. You can ship a cut down version.

And they only just released a subsidy of a trillion RMB, you know, roughly $160 billion, which is closer to the spending of like Microsoft and Meta and Google combined, right, for this year. So it's like they're realizing it just now, but... But that's where these export restrictions come in and say, hey, you can't ship the most powerful US chips to China. You can ship a cut down version.

You can't ship the most powerful chips to all these countries who we know are just going to rent it to China. You have to limit the numbers, right?

You can't ship the most powerful chips to all these countries who we know are just going to rent it to China. You have to limit the numbers, right?