Nick Timiraos
speaker
252 appearances
6 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2017
last heard Nov 2024
Nick Timiraos’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So that's a puzzle right now.
Does strong consumer spending lead the labor market to stabilize and for growth to stop slowing?
Or does slowdowns in labor income growth lead consumer spending to slow in the months ahead?
Well, the election is on Tuesday.
They usually have a two-day meeting, so it seems that they did not want to start their meeting on Tuesday, so they pushed it back by a day just to have a little bit of space.
It's widely expected by investors that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point this time, and that's mostly because inflation has continued to decline.
There doesn't seem to be any signs of major weakness in the economy, but their forecast has called for bringing interest rates down gradually, and so that's what's expected.
It would be hard to make a big change based off of the October jobs report.
And that's because even though the numbers were weak, they were much weaker than economists were expecting.
In October, we had the strikes, the port workers strike and the
Boeing strike.
We had the hurricanes, Helene and Milton.
And so that was bound to mess up these numbers.
You have to take these numbers with a grain of salt.
It's very possible that job growth slowed and is continuing to slow as it has over the past year.
But we'll get another jobs report before the Fed's next meeting in December.
And the November jobs report could help us determine whether this was a fluke or really does mean the economy is slowing down and job growth is really slowing down.
So that's a puzzle right now.
You could point to consumer spending and saying, well, look, so long as the consumer is spending, this economy is fundamentally good and there's nothing to worry about.
And before the October jobs report, I think that was the predominant view.
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