Nick Timiraos

And so that naturally would lead everybody to think that

that it's now the other Kevin, Kevin Warsh, who was a Fed governor 15 years ago, in the poll position.

But just as six weeks ago, everybody thought this was a done deal for Kevin Hassett, it's Donald Trump.

Things can change.

Trump always keeps us guessing, and this is no different.

Look, if you've interviewed with Donald Trump for a job and he hasn't picked anybody for the job, even if you're not the frontrunner, you still have a chance because he could change his mind again.

So initially, they had suggested this would be an October-November decision.

Most recently, the timing has shifted to the next few weeks.

Jay Powell, the current Fed chair, his seat runs until May 15th.

You would probably want to do it two or three months ahead of that so that the Senate can have plenty of time to do the confirmation.

So there are a lot of people who today analysts want to connect with.

the backlash to the probe by the DOJ into the Fed to Hassett falling out of favor.

And the reason for that is pretty simple.

Kevin Hassett had been seen as the frontrunner because of his closeness to Trump, that Trump wants someone who's loyal.

But the probe creates a problem, which is nobody likes this on Capitol Hill.

They think it underscores the idea that

that Donald Trump is going to compromise the independence of the Fed.

And so now there's much more attention being placed by the Senate that's going to have to confirm the next Fed chair on who this person might be.

And so the thinking there would be maybe it'll be easier to get somebody confirmed if they have a little bit more distance and can hold up the idea that they'll be independent.

Well, it doesn't really change too much with either of the two Kevins.