Nicola Willis

speaker

1,507 appearances 29 recordings 3 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard yesterday

Nicola Willis’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 29 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 7.

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The Mike Hosking Breakfast · Nicola Willis: Finance Minister on the OCR, Methanex closing its Taranaki plant after more than 30 years · 2 Sep 2026 podcast

Uh they have in some cases lessened their predictions of two more hikes towards the end of the year.

So it all is very data dependent.

Depends what comes through with inflation, what comes through with growth.

and we'll we'll see that in October.

Well, my my my ad vibe is it does depend on what happens in the Middle East.

We're back there, which is that actually if there isn't more shocks coming out of the Middle East and the oil price doesn't spike again, then you're relieved of that potential inflationary pressure.

Across the economy you're seeing a broadening in recovery, exports really leading the way, and we uh we have every reason to expect that that will continue.

I I think my my vibe is looking at the data, you saw the two year swap rate actually fell yesterday, which suggests that the markets are saying there's less of a risk of a hike uh in October now.

Uh but it's all heavily dependent on what what happens over the next couple of months.

Yeah, well look, everyone's looking at the American midterms to some extent because if something significant happened in the States where they in any way restricted their exports of oil, that would be problematic because if you look at our refineries in Asia they've really switched.

uh to receiving a lot of their oil out of different parts of the world.

So as long as that continues

Everything's fine, but if there was a major change in uh the export behaviour of any major oil exporter, that would be a real risk.

But uh look, the the data we're looking at continues to tell us we've got good supply into New Zealand.

Uh we have seen some stabilisation in the oil price, but I've learned with the Middle East anything can happen and it probably will.

Well, it is very sad, but unfortunately we had already factored this in and were predicting uh that Lethenix would close next year.

So we've factored that into all of our assessments of electricity sufficiency into the future.

So when we assess

Do we have

enough gas to get us through a dry winter, we'd already factored in this methane methanex gas being released into the market.

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