Nicolas Owens
speaker
125 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 5 Aug
Nicolas Owens’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.
Appearances
So let's say R&D and CapEx together, you can think of those as investments in the future of the business.
which they're doing hand over fist, which is appropriate for this type of project.
And again, I think it's lumpy.
I think they almost pulled forward a lot of their R&D type spending, and they had, like you said, extremely low margins, high spending last year.
And so in a way, we're looking at almost favorable comparison post-IPO.
The overall level, I mean, we don't expect them really to make much money for a while.
Still seems high, and I have no reason based on today to change my fair value.
As we move forward and let's say gain new information about some of these market dynamics, I think the scenario you're talking about, maybe to quote Elon Musk, there's a non-zero chance that that anthropic rent goes away.
So you have to sort of keep that in mind.
Um, and I think the scenario in which you're describing is really sort of some kind of a collapse, right?
A house of cards falling down or some, you know, all these cross-funding deals being unwound.
I'm thinking more along the, I'm kind of giving a little, trying to be a little more, let's say, middle of the road and say, in a model where, or in scenarios where
Right now, we're in this gold rush, this fantastical race to spend and invest and build and create, even when the business model hasn't proven out or the profitability isn't there.
I think a lot of people are working on this assumption or the mental model put forth by the head of NVIDIA that there's this five layers cake of value.
And that over the very long term, the value should accrue to the top two layers.
So that's products and apps, which today looks like anthropic.
Even though that's not happening in terms of their bottom line, that's the theory.
So it really boils down to what we think AI is and isn't going to do.
for people.
If it's just going to become a plug-in to everybody's computer, sort of like Microsoft Word was, and everyone's expectation of other people's productivity goes up, that's one scenario that I think is plausible.
Showing 21–40 of 125 · page 2 of 7
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