Noah Smith

speaker

437 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 24 Jul

Noah Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Prof G Markets · America’s Economy Is Entering a New Era — ft. Noah Smith · 24 Jul 2026 podcast

I hear anecdotes.

um i don't you know i i've i don't have hard statistics on how much this is being done who's doing it this is all internal none of this data is public um and anecdotes don't equal data and we i think we should resist drawing excessive uh generalizations from anecdotes um i don't know how much value is being produced because value first of all

It could be that lots of value is being produced, but it won't be realized for a while.

So if a lot of this is learning, if the value of using this stuff is learning how to use it, we won't see that for a while.

It's not gonna show up like, I use this many tokens and I ship this much profit worth of software.

I get this much profit from the software I ship with the tokens that I used.

It won't necessarily be that clean.

You know, if you look at how productivity is measured, like Chad Syverson does a good job of measuring this productivity, but it's really hard.

You know, like you can look at very established industries like ready mix concrete or something, and you can look at how you can really, you know, the production process, you know, the use cases, you know exactly how this stuff is turned into value, you know, inputs are turned into value.

But for AI, you don't.

And so there's a lot of learning here.

Right.

So the classic example here that everyone cites is electricity.

When electricity was first introduced to manufacturing, you know, by this time, everyone was using it to like light their homes or whatever.

But but when electricity is first introduced to manufacturing in like the 1970s.

you know, 1900s, early 1900s.

They just, they had these vertical factories that were turned to these big crank shafts where the entire conveyor belt moved at the same speed because it was driven by a steam boiler.

They ripped out the steam boiler, put an electric dynamo and drove the same thing, found out, wait, it's less energy efficient.

Electricity sucks.

They electricity maxed.

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