Nouriel Roubini

So tariffs are going down, not up.

You know, there's been some short-term volatility.

There's been some shrinkages of our imports from the rest of the world.

My view is actually the U.S.

trade and current account deficit, regardless of tariffs, is going to widen because from a macro point of view, the trade balance is not exports minus imports.

It's savings minus investment.

and U.S.

is in the middle of an investment boom driven by AI and technologies of the future.

It's like an emerging market that found oil or something.

When you have an investment boom and your domestic, private, and public savings are lower, then you have a current account deficit.

So our current account deficit is going to become larger, not smaller, even if you have 30% tariffs.

That's a macro view.

And it doesn't matter because the inflow capital, equity investment to finance it, FDI, VC, startups, you name it, portfolio investment is going to finance that.

So not only American exception is not over, the exorbitant privilege of the US dollar is not over.

And even the weakness of the dollar is only short term.

Over the medium term with 4% growth, the dollar is going to be much stronger and the euro is going to be much weaker.

Listen, in the next few months, it could weaken more, depending on relative monetary policy.

But I'm asking myself, suppose you have 2030 at the end of this decade, and U.S.

growth is four, and Eurozone is stuck at 1%.

Real interest rates, real exchange rate depends on real growth rates.