Nouriel Roubini
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
is going to do well.
China is going to do well.
But my estimate is that the U.S.
potential growth is estimated today to be only 1.8%.
Could be as high as 4% by the end of the decade.
And I've done a bit of a bottom-up analysis.
And by the way, the data on productivity, after the GFC, average productivity between 2009 and 2019 was only 1%.
Since 2019, in spite of the dip during COVID, has doubled to almost 2%, 1.9%.
In 2024, it was 2.4%.
And the number from Q3 suggests it was almost 5%.
And by the way, the Atlanta Fed no-cast for Q4 GDP as today is 5.1%.
Probably it's too high.
But given that and given the job number, you'll have another high productivity growth.
Now, I don't think the productivity growth is 4% or 5%, but there is definitely acceleration.
Jobs is key.
Is it jobless growth?
jobless growth?
Well, it's a jobless growth.
There are three stories.