Owen Raskovich

And then unemployment, which is the other key variable, is 8.25%.

That's what they're forecasting for calendar year 2020.

8%.

and 6.5%.

So those are the two key inputs you need, gross domestic product and unemployment.

And you can probably guess that the unemployment figure that they've forecast, which is 8.25%, 8% and 6.5%,

is above average for Australia.

So that might only be two or three percentage points above what we're used to in Australia, but that's two or three percent of around about 25 million people.

So that's a lot of people out of the workforce.

And that's two or three percent, you could say on average, of houses that no longer have income.

So what we're talking about here is only a minor uptick in this unemployment figure, but we're seeing a forecast drop, then rebound in gross domestic product.

So what's the outcome under this downturn scenario?

Well, over the next three years, the estimated impact from this is an 11% fall.

So it's not nearly as scary as the 30% fall that we've heard some experts or pundits put out in the media, 11%.

But if you're talking about a house worth six or $700,000, that's a lot of money.

So for example, a $700,000 house rather falls 10%, that's a 70% fall, a $70,000 fall, sorry.

So if you're in the market for a house that's worth $700,000,

Maybe, just maybe, if this forecast is right, it could be $630,000 in six months or 12 months or three years from now.

But again, this is only, I guess, just a forecast.

It's just a model, so don't rely on it to make a big decision.