Oz Veloshian

They have been much more capable of hiding and dispersing their weaponry.

to be able to continue to fire even ballistic missiles after now, as you and I are talking, some four weeks of getting just the crap pounded out of them by the Americans and the Israelis, nevermind the drone capabilities that we knew that they had.

And that while the numbers of ballistic missiles that have been used has gone down,

since the opening days of the war, the percentage of targets that have gotten hit has gone up.

And the reason for that is not about capability, it's about how much hardware these countries still have, that they are running out of the adequate defenses to ensure that they can keep Iran

Off of them, when I saw that the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, which is the hardest target in Saudi Arabia to hit, it is the most defended, was hit directly by an Iranian missile after four weeks of the war,

That makes you think differently about war fighting.

And when I see $20 billion of damage done to a Qatari LNG facility that will take a minimum of three years to repair by a drone from Iran that costs maybe $100,000, probably less, the answer to that is,

we are in a much more asymmetric war fighting environment where the Ukrainians can do a lot of damage to Russia and where the Iranians can bring the global economy to their knees.

To me, that is the more surprising outcome from the opening weeks of this war.

There's always the kind of the bigger picture part, which is obviously this particular kinetic conflict is going to end.

There's still going to be massive capacity for energy production, fertilizer production, LNG, oil in the Gulf.

They're still likely, although provisionally, let's just say we don't quite know, going to be an entrenched Islamic Republic in Iran for X period of time.

albeit a weakened one.

I'm not sure what sort of lies on the other side in terms of the global system, other than there will be a continued preaching of we need to be more resilient.

We can't be so dependent on any one choke point.

I assume there will be lots of money spent by lots of people to create alternate supply chains for these things.

But kind of like all the things that were said during COVID, where we were going to make all these supply chains more resilient and never again,

Even I had not really, and what I mean by even I is like I've written about this stuff, I've thought about it, but I hadn't been as palpably aware that here we are again, right?

European diversification post-Russia Ukraine has helped them respond to this crisis in a way that the Asians, for example, are more vulnerable.