Patrick McGee

the sort of things that the Koreans, for instance, are really great at.

But they don't quite get that what makes China so good is having everything, right?

Deeply skilled PhDs at Foxconn, coupled with migrant labor, where the job can literally be taught to you in 20 minutes on a Monday, and by Friday, you're already at the peak of your strength, your ability to be able to pull that off.

India sort of doesn't want to play those roles, or rather the ministers driving the change in certain provinces like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka don't want to play those roles.

And yet, if they don't, they're never going to compete with China.

So unfortunately, I'm quite pessimistic about our chances.

And I would maybe just point to basic statistics and projections like from the United Nations that would say China today has roughly one third of the value added in manufacturing.

And their projection for 2030 is that China will have 45% of it.

I want to be more optimistic.

But when that's the sort of broader paradigm that we're working in, where's the optimism coming from?

I mean, that's sort of the lesson, I think, over the last six months or so.

So I would sort of say we're just watching that play out, right?

I mean, even before Trump 2.0, it was Biden that put 100% tariffs on EVs coming from China.

And if Europe sort of doesn't impose that sort of policy, you're just going to see more and more electric vehicles taking over.

There's this line from Noah Smith that I really like, you know, the economist who talks about how overcapacity is seen as a problem from a Western lens.

But through China's lens, this is just something where by producing more than they need and then exporting it at cutthroat prices or even losing money in certain respects, I mean, they're just deindustrializing other nations.

And that's not good for sort of capitalism in the profit sense.

But if you're using this as industrial statecraft, if not war,

Profit is not the goal.

Thank you.