Paul Kedrosky
speaker
1,259 appearances
4 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 4d ago
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Like, think about it in systems terms.
You have to always connect everything to everything.
And what happens whenever the debt becomes less valuable?
Okay, I can't do as much.
Well, what what what are the consequences of that?
Like connecting everything for whatever reason is really hard for people to do.
And the system's telling you, it's telling you, it's screaming at you, whether it's the world trade data, the inflation data, the tenure data, that the system is both under stress and wild.
Wildly connected and all of these pieces are are are you know reaching breaking points.
I I say this all the time, but I think it's overdetermined, meaning there's so many ways this can break because of all of the ways in which the system is under stress, whether it's in trade flows, whether it's in, you know, this the likelihood of a balance sheet recession, whether it's in the increasing hurdle rate on new data center debt issuance.
Um all of these all of these are places it can break.
My my guess is it breaks in somewhere because this is the way these things tend to go.
It breaks in somewhere unexpected.
Expected, like we have a botched um uh ten year treasury auction, uh wouldn't surprise me at all.
That would be a good idea.
By which you mean
That's correct.
Yeah.
So they said, here's how much we'd like to sell.
We can't sell that at anywhere near this price.
And if you saw that, something like that happen, which would be an artifact of what's happening in AI data centers, the spreads on tr on ten years would blow out, meaning they would get much, much um wider, they would get much larger, and the rates would go higher, but it would it would explode your ability to raise debt at any economic price in the world of data centers, whether you're a hyperscaler or a
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