Paul Kedrosky
speaker
1,259 appearances
4 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 4d ago
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
I think it's unlikely you could ever earn it back.
But you can at least attract debt investors on those terms.
So they there's two different issues here.
There's two different issues here.
to rise, but on that order of things, that's right.
oh, that's really straightforward.
You know, Gavin Baker's out there telling you that uh right, that the the margins on these things in terms of pure inference is are so high.
But of course, the problem is that this is the classic phenomenon of I call it like earnings before bad things.
So if I cut out all of the things that are costing me a lot of money and then I calculate E B B T, not EB, but E B B T earnings before bad things, then my cash flow is tremendous.
Well then
Then fine, show me the hyperscalers that have can stopped spending on frontier models, and I'll buy the argument that the economics now make sense purely in terms of commodity inference.
But if you go to the world of saying, okay, fine, industrial inference is actually a relatively high cash flow business.
Let's just grant them that.
Then the question becomes: well, who's going to win that?
Well, if it's just industrial inference, so then meaning that I'm just doing, you know, token completion sequences as low-cost.
As possible and at at the highest scale possible, that's really just an energy problem.
So it's just who can throw the most energy at this?
China's throwing on an annual basis roughly three times adding three times as much capacity per year as the United States is and is already ahead of the US in right in terms of the amount of energy it's thrown at this.
So it's fairly straightforward.
You're just looking at solar panels, but it happens to be uh tokens.
Showing 381–400 of 1,259 · page 20 of 63
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