Paul Kedrosky
speaker
1,259 appearances
4 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 4d ago
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Um, and so you there's all kinds of reasons you might anticipate why, but it's it's very fraught as it gets closer to the end of the year, not least because of the you know the political consequences in the US, given that this thing is kind of a you know laser target, but also the AMT consequences for employees, this IRS AMT issue.
And um and you know, further obviously the the the consequences for the company itself in terms of you know whether or not the valuation even looks like the kinds of numbers that they've been looking at.
Because again, this is complete, complete you know, hearsay speculation, but uh uh a vendor who's very fairly close to the company was was told me that they had at least underperformed their expectations in the third quarter.
Uh
I have no idea if that's a good idea.
I have no idea if that's
Anthropic, that's right.
So that they had underperformed their ex their expectations.
Now again, this was not from someone at Anthropic, this was from a third party who was with with intimate knowledge of what the company was doing as a provider to them on a very large.
The which I found which is obviously really interesting isn't pr necessarily particularly surprising in the context of the numbers we keep seeing out there in terms of customer concentration.
That's right.
That's right.
So this this incredible constant customer concentration among customers who were token maxing and who who have increasingly cut back.
And and so whenever you have, you know, two or three customers making up sixty plus percent of your revenues.
And they were you know, f following a policy of of token maxing or whatever else.
It's not particularly surprising that you get this, you know, incredible pulse of revenues and growth at one point and then you get a kind of air pocket later in the year and that's exactly what it seems like we may be seeing.
Yeah, right.
The E BBT problem.
Yeah, earnings before bad things again.
So I my general view on all of these things is, and it sort of goes back to this guy Hyman Minsky, who talked about these sort of Minsky moments in financial markets where financialization of the phenomenon takes over and detaches from any underlying reality.
Showing 441–460 of 1,259 · page 23 of 63
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