Paul Kedrosky
speaker
1,259 appearances
4 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 2d ago
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
yield sensitive investors, individual consumers, by people buying treasuries or having them embedded in ETFs by corporates, by uh sovereign or sorry, by institutions and others, and they care what the yield is.
So now you have this phenomenon where people are yield sensitive and they actually care and they say, you know what?
At the margin, given the choice between owning hyperscalar debt at the same duration with a pristine balance sheet, they argue, or owning treasuries, at the margin I'd rather own the hyperscalar debt and up goes the yield on the on the treasuries.
So it's that's the mistake people make exactly right there.
Right.
Where they misunderstand the causal link here and they think, oh, this is because people have suddenly lost uh faith in the US's ability to pay its debt.
The US prints dollars.
They are not going to default.
They may deflate it away, but don't confuse the issue by introducing the idea that somehow because of some madness the US is doing that its debt is more suspect.
This is literally an artifact of competition at the margin from hyperscalar
issuance in a d newly yield sensitive market, causing people to say, I'd rather own X than Y, and that has sovereign consequences for the US as an increasing fraction of its budget gets eaten up every year by debt by payments on the debt, and in part because of AI issuance.
medices broadly and defense, uh, you know, Medicare and in sort of all of those those are the three big buckets.
But behind all of those very closely, depending on the math, comes in something like in the mid teens, uh, interest payments.
No, and it doesn't, and it there's an even it's a double locking doom loop.
I'll give you the other piece of it.
So if you're the government and you say, okay, you know, this is causing uh has consequences for us in terms of increasing current and future projected debt payments as a result of competing at the margin for these yield-sensitive investors, what do you say to yourself as a solution?
Well, we need to grow the economy faster, because that'll solve the problem, obviously.
And how do I grow the economy?
Well, I increase
productivity.
Showing 121–140 of 1,259 · page 7 of 63
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