Pete Wargent
speaker
553 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2022
last heard Jan 2023
Pete Wargent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Really good, guys.
It's great to be back on as always and happy new year.
Yeah, I think by far and away, the biggest issue as it relates to real estate at the moment is inflation and interest rates, which I guess are tied together.
Now,
We've been through a period where the cash rate target essentially went to zero, 10 basis points, and everybody went to that side of the ship and said, you know, interest rates are going to be stuck low forever, never going to get them away from the zero lower bound.
And then in the space of a relatively short period of time between May and the end of 2022, everyone's gone to the other side of the ship and said inflation is going to be with us for decades.
We won't get it back down.
Interest rates are just going to go up.
Usually you find with most property stories and most clickbait that the truth is somewhere in the middle.
And I think if you look at what financial markets, which have actually been more reliable than most of the talking heads over the past year or so, well, they're pricing for interest rates to go a little bit higher, but not too much higher.
So I'm assuming they're somewhere close to the truth.
We might have a couple of interest rate hikes.
in 2023, but eventually you start to see markets looking for interest rates to fall again towards the end of the year.
So there's a bit of pain to be got through first, but like a lot of these things, as I said, the truth is usually somewhere in the middle.
I think, well, the main driver at the moment is confidence.
If you look at the fundamentals of the housing market, we've seen an increase to the immigration intake to an all-time high.
We've got a stonking rebound in the number of temporary visa holders.
I think broadly, if you project out the numbers from the federal budget, you can expect Australia's population to go from around 26 million today to about 29.
million by the end of 2030.
If you look at it sort of over the course of the decades, a lot of demand for housing, huge demand, in fact.
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