Pete Wargent

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553 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2022 last heard Jan 2023

Pete Wargent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Australian Finance Podcast · 🏠 10 most expensive suburbs in Australia | ft. Pete Wargent · 2 Jan 2023 podcast

the the quote about the short term being a voting machine and the long term a weighing machine there is there are definitely some um there's a lot of research that's been done over the decades to show that certain landlocked suburbs tend to deliver solid capital growth returns over a very long period of time and that's because the demand in general is going up um there's there's no new land to be released sometimes properties get demolished and rebuilt and so on

um so that might not apply though if you're looking at say for example a mining town they might have a big run-up in prices now if you're looking at somewhere like gladstone or broken hill or we saw the same in northwest of australia up near port headland but then you tend to get big spikes in prices and they drop back and the long-term results aren't that good

So yeah, generally, looking at historic returns can be a good start.

But if you're looking for places that are going to perform or outperform, you generally want them to be gentrifying or improving in some way.

So new transport connections can be good.

Often you do see in real estate kind of a ripple effect, which we've definitely seen in Brisbane over the past five years, where you had some very expensive blue chip suburbs around places like

Hawthorne and New Farm and so on.

But as people couldn't afford those, the growth rippled outwards.

A good case in point would be somewhere like your suburbs like Graceville and Corinda with private schools and so on.

And people were priced out of those suburbs and went along to the next suburb along the train line, effectively places like Oxley.

And you can see how as the gentrification continues, the capital growth has been very strong.

So there's a few different things you can look at.

And if you're a real data nerd, there's indicators you can look at.

things like the rise in two income households and household income and so on.

So I think the big thing that's going to change next year in the housing market is that the New South Wales Premier has successfully passed a first home buyer law reform.

So first home buyers from mid January, 2023, won't have to pay stamp duty if they opt not to, up to the $1.5 million price point.

So that will probably mean that when the housing rebound begins, it will be led by New South Wales, but from the bottom end of the market upwards,

So if you follow that line of thinking, and I saw SQM Research put out its 2023 boom and bust report predictions, and they predict Sydney and New South Wales will lead the rebound partly for that reason, and also because that's where some of the bigger price declines have happened.

So if you're looking at suburbs in the lower end of the price points or from the bottom end of the market, lower quartile, you'd probably be looking at

suburbs around Wollongong, Central Coast, some of those markets that are still within a striking distance of the city for people who need to be in the office two or three days a week.

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