Peter McCrory

in new capital or new organizational workflows.

That was kind of a point from our last report.

And so that suggests that there will be this like jagged adoption.

Maybe coding again is a great example because we had very, very swift adoption here because of the contextual information is right there for the model.

It can traverse with cloud code and can traverse the repository to figure out how to complete the task that it's actually capable to complete.

We just introduced Claude Cowork, which suggests that there will be maybe another sort of jump for knowledge domains that have sort of similar properties through that type of interface, given the underlying capabilities.

But I definitely agree with the point that it's not this inexorable and smooth march.

And I think in some sense, as an economist, it's actually somewhat helpful to

that it is jagged because it suggests that we can tease out some of these impacts along the way by comparing where these jagged adoption or jagged capabilities first materialize.

In some sense, that's kind of the approach of the work that I alluded to before, the canaries in the coal mine or...

The folks at the Yale Budget Lab who've looked at this question from a different angle, but incorporating AI exposure.

You can use these differences in exposure and adoption to try to tease out not just where we might expect effects to materialize, but like ultimately what those effects are.

And I think that is like a big question for the next year.

The capability doesn't instantaneously deliver adoption.

You need to identify new ways to deploy those capabilities in more accessible ways.

I think Cloud Code is a good example here.

where software engineers and developers and those who are very comfortable working at the command line interface were able to just like jump in and use it.

But if you don't have that background, that is entirely inaccessible to you, even when what you can use cloud code for is actually like much more than for coding.

And that's kind of illustrates the value of cloud co-work, which is a much more accessible entry point for developers

Folks who may feel some trepidation with downloading cloud code or working with the command line interface, even though the underlying mechanics of this agentic technology are very similar.