Peter McCrory
speaker
628 appearances
3 recordings
3 series
first heard Jan 2026
last heard 19 Jun
Peter McCrory’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
It was like having a very capable research assistant, much like the job that I had when I was fresh out of college working at the St.
Louis Fed.
That type of implementation capacity, the ability to understand how to run and set up regressions, how to download data through writing a new API, Opus 4.5 was able to do all of that and even write up a documentation methodological report.
I suspect that we will see sort of the level of managerial oversight sort of move to a higher level as people begin to delegate maybe like lower, more straightforward, but nevertheless sometimes ambiguous implementation steps.
It's a great question.
And in the report, the 50% at sort of 17 hours or around like 20 hours is an extrapolation of the linear fit that we document.
So I don't think we actually see those very long tasks that you're describing.
It's just sort of the implication of the data that we do
see in our data.
And so I think this is similar to the type of analyses that Meter has put out looking at task duration or task horizon and relating that to the reliability of frontier models.
But it is conceptually different along two important dimensions.
One, it's not just a sort of a laboratory controlled analysis.
It's people are choosing to bring
which tasks they bring to Claude, and they are bringing tasks where they believe Claude will be most capable, especially on Claude.ai where there's this multi-turn oversight interaction where you give Claude a task, you see the output, you give it some feedback, and you have this oversight that can increase the reliability of what the model is able to complete in a short amount of time relative to how long it would take if you had to do it alone.
I think compiling a literature review, a substantive literature review, is an example of a task that would take a research assistant.
So I'm speaking a bit from my own experience working at the Fed when I was younger.
That would take me multiple days to put together and compile nicely for the senior economists I was working for.
Claude is able to do that sort of thing reasonably proficiently very quickly, and Opus 4.5 will be able to do that even better.
I think that this is a very insightful observation about how the nature of work might be changing and how the sort of capabilities unequally affect sort of early career workers versus later career workers.
And, you know, when I worked as a research assistant at the Fed to continue this example for my life, I learned a lot on the job from doing very basic tasks.
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