Peter Tuchman
speaker
483 appearances
9 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2024
last heard Apr 2025
Peter Tuchman’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
2024, the market went up most of the time. Investors became very confident and started throwing more money at the market. During COVID, the market went down. People freaked out. They started taking money out. That was a big mistake. We also have confirmation bias where we get married to certain ideas. This is why some of your conservative listeners, Nicole, might
read the wall street journal and watch fox and some of your liberal investors might read the new york times and watch cnn and and we go to this place that reaffirms what we're doing and we ignore the places that disagree with us and the investors do that you own a certain stock you go look for things that validate why you should own that stock people tend not to look for things that tell them they're wrong or they should exit something that they want to keep and so
And Warren Buffett famously said, when he buys a stock, he just doesn't look for things on why it will do well, but what could go wrong? And he is really looking for counter opinions. And that's a great way to fight that confirmation bias. And then lastly, another, and we cover a lot more of this in the book, but another one that's very powerful is
is the endowment effect, which is once you own something, you don't want to let it go. This is why when you go to a car dealer, they say, hey, do you want to get in the car and go for a drive? Because now you can see yourself owning the car at the jewelry store. They say, hey, go ahead and put these earrings on or put this necklace on because now it feels like it's yours.
That endowment effect kicks in. And that endowment effect is very powerful. If you own a stock, it takes a lot to get you to want to sell it because you feel very married to it. And so if you can become aware of these biases, it makes it easier to become a disciplined investor and stick to your plan.
You can't help it. Especially if you bought something that's done well, it becomes very hard to part ways with.
I think there's so much noise. Politics and social media have really put a lot of people on edge and it's starting to impact decision-making. And I personally see it with the thousands of clients that we work with at Creative. I see it impact the thinking of some of these clients. And I would just say-
ignore the noise stand tall let the wind blow all around you make your investing about you and your goals and not who's the president not who's in congress not what someone's saying someone tweeted yesterday it should really be about what are you trying to accomplish what do i need to own to accomplish that and then just put yourself in a pattern where you do it over and over again no matter what is happening and that gives you the absolute highest chance of success
I think, so one big thing people talk about is taxes, but really for the last 20 years under Bush and Biden and Trump and Obama, the taxes policy has not changed significantly. Income tax rates have barely moved. Capital gains rates have not moved at all. Really taxes have not changed a lot. And the changes they talk about making are very much on the periphery.
The other big thing that impacts the economy is interest rates. The president and Congress don't control interest rates. The Federal Reserve does. We're the same Federal Reserve.
under trump that we had under biden but we do expect rates to come down a little bit more and when they do it tends to be very good for the markets because the cost of companies to borrow to operate goes down and so it has them do well the one thing that's interesting is they've got this committee elon and vivek that are going to be doing apparently cost cutting across the federal bureaucracy so there's a good way to look at this and a bad way to look at this the good way is
If they really did that, that would lower a lot of the expenses of the federal government. And the single biggest crisis the United States faces is the federal deficit. It's not debatable at all. It doesn't matter if you talk to a liberal economist or a conservative economist. This is the single greatest threat to the future of the United States is the deficit.
So cutting federal spending would be positive in that regard. If they really went really over the top and really terminated a lot of people, that would drive unemployment up a little bit. And that can also start to slow down the economy to lose all of this government spending. To me, this is still noise. And as an investor, there's too many things going on in the world.
These are just a couple things that'll be fun to watch and fun to follow to see how they play out, but shouldn't change the way someone looks at their personal plan.
I think it's because there's two different groups of people, Nicole. So I think that for the group of people that own stocks and own real estate, or they own stock in a business that they're a partner in, everything's great. There was high inflation and what else inflated? Stocks inflated, the home value inflated, your real estate inflated, your business inflated.
But the overwhelming majority of Americans, they don't have those things, right? They go to work, they get a paycheck and they're making $50,000 a year or whatever the amount may be. And then they've got their expenses and their expenses went up 30, 40, 50% at the grocery store and housing and taxes and everything else. But their income did not go up as much.
So we know that for sure that the income inflation for that group was less than their expenses. They are in a severe recession. So the majority of Americans... are going to the grocery store or trying to take a family trip or trying to cover the cost of their car and their property and casualty insurance. Everything is rocketed and their pay is not kept up with it.
They are in a recession and the rest are in great times. And that's why we have this vibe session. It's two different groups experiencing a very different economy right now.
The dream scenario is inflation is just under control and we can get wages to rise without the price of all these goods to continue to go up at the same pace. And that would solve the problem. And that's what we're really looking to see happen here. That's what we call the Goldilocks outcome. And very rarely is it not too hot or not too cold.
I'm sure there will be a few missteps before the Federal Reserve gets it just right.
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