Phil Orlando
speaker
136 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2019
last heard Oct 2019
Phil Orlando’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
We absolutely agree with you that the fears of recession are overblown.
Our models are still suggesting no recession in 2018 or 2019 or 2020.
The earliest we think that recession is coming is the first half of 2021.
But we also don't think we're out of the woods yet in terms of the volatility we've seen in the market.
We had taken our equity overweight down
over the summer.
I think it was July from about an 8% overweight to a 3% overweight because we felt that there would be significant amount of increased volatility during the August, September, October timeframe.
And something in the order of a 5% to 8% correction
that might take the S&P down to its 200-day moving average.
Let's call it the 2,800 level.
So we did get a move down the beginning of August.
The market has come back nicely over the last six weeks or so.
But I don't know that we're completely out of the woods because as we look across the border, the horizon there to the end of October, you've got a bunch of things that are
that are still out there.
Certainly the Brexit deadline, the Japanese VAT tax decision, whether or not the German economy has gone into recession.
You've got the Draghi transition at the ECB, and you've got this ongoing, you know, trade and tariff dispute with China.
All of those things are still out there.
And in our mind, that potentially combines and gives us, you know, something of a rocky October as well.
In our view, the consensus view has been that this China trade deal, this trade war, if you will, has been bad.
It's hurt economic growth.
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