Phil Orlando

speaker

136 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2019 last heard Oct 2019

Phil Orlando’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Stock Market: What to Expect in the 4th Quarter · 1 Oct 2019 podcast

So we've had solid consumer spending for the last six months through the August retail sales period.

So at least up until this point, our consumer has not been negatively impacted by the ongoing concerns about Chinese trade.

The Federal Reserve, in our view, is trying to balance three ideas.

One is the question of data dependence, which is what the Fed typically does.

Is the economy growing well?

Is inflation stable?

The second is a sense of independence, and we never used to talk about that, but we do now because President Trump has been inappropriately pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

So the Fed needs to demonstrate some backbone here, some independence.

And the third issue is this question of an insurance cut that what Powell and other members of the Fed have talked about over the last several months is that with all of these geopolitical risks –

They recognize that the Federal Reserve is the central bank of the world, and they've got to try to create a more accommodative platform to make sure that we're not contributing to potentially a global recession.

So the Fed has given us rate cuts in the end of July and the middle of September.

I think we're going to sneak one more cut in on October 30th.

Again, there's that Halloween theme again.

So October and not December.

And not December.

I think the Fed will be done by October 30th.

And if they're going to use an insurance cut based upon geopolitical risk as their justification, they've got to do it October because these issues are still alive.

But by the time we get to December, we may have some resolution on some of these issues.

And the justification for a rate cut on the basis of geo risk might be off the table.

Thanks for having me on.

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