Quincy Larson

I think they I think the uncertainty is much more significant than the actual, you know, net improvement in productivity as an individual developer. So you have managers who think like, oh, I can just like have one developer do the job of 10 developers if they're using AI. I don't believe that to be the case. I use AI all the time.

I think they I think the uncertainty is much more significant than the actual, you know, net improvement in productivity as an individual developer. So you have managers who think like, oh, I can just like have one developer do the job of 10 developers if they're using AI. I don't believe that to be the case. I use AI all the time.

Like I probably talk to LLMs more than I talk to any single human being other than my wife and my kids.

Like I probably talk to LLMs more than I talk to any single human being other than my wife and my kids.

Yeah. So you could like lay off one of every five developers, maybe one of every six or something. Exactly. I'm not sure exactly how the math shakes out, but, but yeah. And, and that's basing it on, you know, the productivity increase, but like we haven't laid anybody off. Like we don't, we don't believe that, uh, and we're using this stuff extensively internally, uh,

Yeah. So you could like lay off one of every five developers, maybe one of every six or something. Exactly. I'm not sure exactly how the math shakes out, but, but yeah. And, and that's basing it on, you know, the productivity increase, but like we haven't laid anybody off. Like we don't, we don't believe that, uh, and we're using this stuff extensively internally, uh,

there's just been so much work to be done. We just shift people around. So I can talk about how we're shifting the team around, but, but let me talk about just a little bit about people who are on the job market. If you're listening to this, if you're on the job market, trying to get a job as a developer. The jobs are going to come back. Hang in there. There's a very slow correction.

there's just been so much work to be done. We just shift people around. So I can talk about how we're shifting the team around, but, but let me talk about just a little bit about people who are on the job market. If you're listening to this, if you're on the job market, trying to get a job as a developer. The jobs are going to come back. Hang in there. There's a very slow correction.

It takes forever for these hiring cycles to happen. It takes forever for the Gartner hype cycle to ride the wave from the peak of inflated expectations to the trout of disillusionment to the plateau of productivity. If you're familiar with the Gartner hype cycle, it's this phenomenon that pretty much every technology has gone through. And LLMs are going through that.

It takes forever for these hiring cycles to happen. It takes forever for the Gartner hype cycle to ride the wave from the peak of inflated expectations to the trout of disillusionment to the plateau of productivity. If you're familiar with the Gartner hype cycle, it's this phenomenon that pretty much every technology has gone through. And LLMs are going through that.

And when people say AI, they're talking about LLMs mainly. That's been like the major breakthrough. So I think that if you're in a situation where you are trying to learn to code and you're hoping to get a developer job, my advice would be, you know, don't quit your day job.

And when people say AI, they're talking about LLMs mainly. That's been like the major breakthrough. So I think that if you're in a situation where you are trying to learn to code and you're hoping to get a developer job, my advice would be, you know, don't quit your day job.

The same thing I've always been saying, like if you're working at a Starbucks or if you've got a job at like some, you know, accounting consultancy, like I worked as an accountant for a while, like doing like temp work, essentially moving from company to company, doing that sort of stuff. It sucked.

The same thing I've always been saying, like if you're working at a Starbucks or if you've got a job at like some, you know, accounting consultancy, like I worked as an accountant for a while, like doing like temp work, essentially moving from company to company, doing that sort of stuff. It sucked.

um but keep doing that work whatever's paying the bills whatever's keeping food on the table and and like keeping you like keep paying down your debt and doing all that stuff right but um just plan long term expect it to take a couple years the days when you know like if you look at the pre-2000 bubble if you had like basic html css skills if you knew like how to run a web server or like ftp some files or something like that you could get a job as a web designer

um but keep doing that work whatever's paying the bills whatever's keeping food on the table and and like keeping you like keep paying down your debt and doing all that stuff right but um just plan long term expect it to take a couple years the days when you know like if you look at the pre-2000 bubble if you had like basic html css skills if you knew like how to run a web server or like ftp some files or something like that you could get a job as a web designer

And then in 2012-ish, I would say the tools became so good that a lot of people could get jobs as WordPress developers or doing basic Ruby on Rails work. That's what my first job was, doing Rails dev on a small team, just maintaining a Rails code base. And over time, it's gotten a little bit harder. But the jobs were increasing, so we didn't really think too much about it.

And then in 2012-ish, I would say the tools became so good that a lot of people could get jobs as WordPress developers or doing basic Ruby on Rails work. That's what my first job was, doing Rails dev on a small team, just maintaining a Rails code base. And over time, it's gotten a little bit harder. But the jobs were increasing, so we didn't really think too much about it.

It's just like, oh, now we got to learn React. Now we got to learn about a whole lot of security considerations. We've got to think about accessibility. There's always been this layering of additional things you need to learn, and that's not going to go away. It's just going to get harder and harder in terms of the actual skills that you need to know to work as a software engineer.

It's just like, oh, now we got to learn React. Now we got to learn about a whole lot of security considerations. We've got to think about accessibility. There's always been this layering of additional things you need to learn, and that's not going to go away. It's just going to get harder and harder in terms of the actual skills that you need to know to work as a software engineer.