Rachel Bitecofer
speaker
583 appearances
4 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2024
last heard 17 Feb
Rachel Bitecofer’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Feb 2026 with 1.
Appearances
I mean, what he's got is a probabilistic model that he's feeding daily data into
We can make we can bone pick on the data, too, because he's using insider polling that you can flood that market and manipulate the outcome.
Right.
But at the end of the day, like probability doesn't swing 15 points in one day, especially when non events like tonight, there's a big event.
It went one sided.
Maybe you could make an argument that the fundamentals have shifted 15 points in probability, but not.
Last week.
And so what he's doing is, in my opinion, I know I speak on other people with academic degrees.
It was research unethical.
I mean, but it is selling a lot of subscriptions to his blog.
And I think that is the ultimate purpose of all of his work.
Because when you follow my blog for election analysis, you're getting a weekly update, which I think is still generous, okay?
Because usually there's not something new and exciting to tell you in a week.
And I'm telling you, the fundamentals are set.
There's not that much variation in our discipline.
It's a known fact that campaigns are minimally, they have minimal effects.
We're talking about marginal effects.
And so the coverage acts like everything is this new event and everything can change.
Well, certainly when you change the nominee, you can get an effect that big.
When you overturn Roe v. Wade after 53 years, you can get an effect that big.
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