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Richard de Crespigny

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
See mentions of this person in podcasts
895 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

You'll derive.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

You do the hard work.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

You derive.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

Well, given these reasons, yes, I am safe.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

So I'm going to put it really simply.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

We talk about risk, and risk is probability of an event times a consequence.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

Right?

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

Now, let's imagine the consequences are the same.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

Let's imagine the consequence is you dying.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

Right.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

This is the worst.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

And now we're going to talk about risk where death is the outcome, the consequence.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

So the risk is equal to the probability because the consequence is the consequence.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

No.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

No, no, no.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

Gravity is a consequence.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

The consequence is what is the outcome when an event happens.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

Events can be probable and possible, and that's different levels of probability of an event happening.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

But the probability of an asteroid coming through this room is very small.

Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
#222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers

The consequence is probably fatal for you and me, right?