Richard Fontaine

And so there is often this sense that countries would like to be less dependent on China, but not yet.

And for other reasons, they'd like to be less dependent on the United States, but not yet.

And so that's kind of where they find themselves.

So you began by talking about folks who see the world as kind of divided into two blocks.

And that's a little too stark to account for the way things are because of the existence of those who don't fit into those blocks.

So there is at least a semi-coherent difference.

axis of upheaval.

We've called it Russia, China, Iran, North Korea working together more closely.

And then there's a relatively liberal, although some increasingly fractious these days, you know, kind of block of allies in the United States and in Japan and South Korea and Australia and Europe and so forth.

OK, fine.

So you've got those.

But you also have these global swing states in the middle, as I've

called them, which are a group of, you know, medium sized or larger countries that want alignments with both blocks.

They want a mix of security and economic benefits from both, and they're not going to join one or the other.

And this

whether you call it hedging or multi-alignment or maintaining simultaneous connections to both sides as a form of geopolitical insurance rather than throwing all in with one side and then among other things either losing out of the benefits that ties with the other side might convey or pulling in the antipathy of the other side and so it's a form of geopolitical risk insurance to essentially diversify your portfolio of international relationships

I think a lot of this is driven by the reality of China's economic rise at the same time as countries worry in part because of that economic rise about China's geopolitical intentions and how assertive and aggressive it's been in different parts of the world.

So that's kind of the economic and geopolitical reality on the Chinese side, which is coinciding with doubts about American reliability and engagement in different parts of the world.

But at the same time, the United States obviously continues to have the biggest market in the world and the most powerful military in the world, which is not nothing.

So for these global swing states having access only to the benefits of alignment with one side or the other, but instead get a mix of benefits from both, then that's what they will do.