Richard Fontaine

I think it's less about the the Russian invasion of Ukraine, although, you know, that's the backdrop against which some of this is taking place.

Yes, I was at the Munich Security Conference, as so many people were last month.

And the common refrain from many in Europe was we can't count on the United States anymore.

This is a country that instead of offering to protect us against invasion, like was the case during the Cold War, instead appears to covet our own territory like Greenland and constantly disparaged our allies and suggests that they might not be there if the balloon went up and there was some sort of contingency.

I actually think that some of that is overblown.

I think if NATO were attacked, then the United States would be there for Europe, even despite all of the ups and downs and erraticism of the current administration.

But the bigger problem for Europe right now is that they don't have much in the way of alternatives.

So they can say, well, we doubt the United States would defend us if it was necessary.

But China is not going to defend Europe and Russia is not going to defend Europe.

Russia is the entity they're worried about.

And Europe is not yet in a place to defend itself and won't be in a place to defend itself in any time in the near future.

And so European allies are in this position where they both worry about American reliability and are dependent on it.

They are.

And you're also seeing them to some degree coordinate with one another or choosing issues on which to coordinate with the United States on one side or Russia, China and the other and kind of build international narratives and try to get greater representation for themselves on the kind of international tables and things like that.

They will push back.

I mean, it really so these kind of swing states that we're talking about, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey,

I mean, they push back in a variety of different ways, and it really depends on the country.

So you see a country like South Africa pushing back in lots of different ways against American policies and positions.

You see a country like Saudi Arabia pushing back much less, or at least publicly.

And then other ones are kind of in the middle, but all want to maintain some sort of productive relationship with the United States without throwing all in with the U.S.