Richard Werner

It's not a cheap and easy process.

So it's not economically the best oil, but it's the biggest volume.

Okay, so that is something.

And by the way, who's been refining most Venezuelan oil and has built up a huge array of refineries is China.

And that is an important indication of where all this is heading.

So that was step one, Venezuela.

Step two, well, who else is a big oil producer and source of oil and energy for China is Iran.

So now Iran is under attack.

War is made on Iran.

And of course we have the economic fallout that other countries will suffer as trade through the Strait of Hormuz is severely limited, restricted.

It's not fully 100% embargoed.

Ships are getting through, but clearly not the majority.

and it has had an impact and of course it's not just um oil um but also other things that delivered you know fertilizer um a lot of the middle eastern countries are the world some of the world's largest producers of fertilizer

for the world, even for the US, delivering to the US, to Europe, to many countries.

And of course, that has also been severely, the shipping of those has been restricted.

That'll have consequences next year.

That's not immediate.

It's for the next growing season because there's stocks and so on.

And that's where now I think it's good to go back again to the run-up to the First World War.

What was the situation?