Rima Grace

And it's not for lack of trying to get there by any means.

But it is hard to envision a world where the Fed is able to keep cutting if inflation is, you know, A, moving in the wrong direction and B, just not making the kind of progress that they want to be seeing.

And so...

It doesn't mean that that kind of soft landing is impossible to achieve.

But here we are again talking about whether this kind of increase is a blip if it's going to start to seep through broader inflation as opposed to just staying more confined to oil markets.

And that basically leaves them in the same kind of conundrum that they've had for a long time about balancing the risks that can pile up in the labor market side and can pile up on the inflation side quite quickly.

Right.

Well, Sudeep, I mean, is there anything the Fed can do while they're looking at these numbers?

Like how much control do we think the Fed really has these days?

Well, let's talk more about the consumers.

So the consumer sentiment came out today.

Not so great at a record low.

Not a huge surprise there that people are feeling pessimistic.

At the same time, inflation expectations, they're creeping up.

Rachel, tell us what people are actually seeing out there that's shaping the mood right now.

I mean, we've seen this before after Russia invaded Ukraine that gas prices end up being a billboard for the way the economy is faring.

And when you see in so many parts of the country the price for a gallon of gasoline compounding day after day after day, that has a real psychological impact on top of the impact when people are actually filling up at the pump and having to insert their credit card.

And we know that people, you know, react with their vote on this affordability, especially when it came to the basics like housing costs and gas and food played a major role in a how people felt and be how people voted in the last election.

And I think we can expect that that is going to remain a really prevalent part of the midterm conversation unless people start to feel real relief, not just in the current price level, but something that feels like it's actually going to stick.

Yeah.