Rob Wiblin

speaker

5,091 appearances 15 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2021 last heard 6 Aug

Rob Wiblin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 13 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #250 – Toby Ord on where AGI timelines go wrong · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

And just to finish up my various objections, I think the last one was some things I imagine you can learn through simulation.

And I guess they already kind of do this.

I guess that's sort of RLVR is a sort of simulation.

I don't know.

But you can imagine if you have a really good internal world model, then you might not have to go and actually do these things in the real world because you can just imagine it.

I think humans learn partly through dreaming, and I imagine some of this is we imagine situations and react to them, and that helps us to process the information that we have.

And I guess perhaps AIs could do that as well.

If you deny people dreaming, I think their ability to remember what happened the previous day is catastrophically ruined.

So it's like a huge factor in learning.

I've got this piece that we published recently where I try to make sense of all of the different updates that we've gotten about timelines to AGI through 2026.

And I guess one of the ones I had on the list was that OpenAI, one of their models, I think they haven't named which one, it made some progress on disproving a commonly believed conjecture about the unit

what is that, the unit distance problem, which I guess is like a possible sign that it's becoming a creative researcher is able to have original thoughts.

But I ended up concluding that I'm really unsure whether to be impressed by this or not.

It's like, it's cool, but it's very hard to interpret.

Do you have a take on like whether this is impressive or not?

So they can't do it now, but I would expect that stuff is coming soon.

Do you agree?

You've been surprised how many times there are more things to go.

So, yeah, you wrote this piece not too long ago, arguing that we shouldn't think of ourselves as having short timelines or long timelines or medium timelines, but rather having broad timelines.

We should kind of embrace the reality that we don't know when AGI is going to come.

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