Rob Wiblin

speaker

5,091 appearances 15 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2021 last heard 6 Aug

Rob Wiblin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 13 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #250 – Toby Ord on where AGI timelines go wrong · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

Yeah, make the case for that.

I guess you've already somewhat made the case for that.

Quite significantly.

Yeah, in the piece you lean reasonably heavily on the fact that, I guess it seems like even, yeah, even the most bullish timelines people do have like reasonably wide confidence intervals.

I'm a little bit nervous about over-relying on that because I guess in the case of the AI futures people,

I think they've spent a lot more time modeling the rapid timelines than they've modeled the longer timelines.

So I worry that like under the hood, what you would find is that they've just said, and they're like, ah, there's a chance it takes a lot longer and we don't know.

It might not be as considered as the recursive, you know, rapid recursive self-improvement scenarios that they write about.

And another reason is, I'm not sure, maybe we'll say, well, it could take much longer than 2040 or 2050.

I'm not sure whether they're saying it won't be technically feasible until then because it just requires an insane amount of computer.

We don't have the data.

Or they're saying there could be a war between the US and China that destroys civilization.

Maybe that's why it takes 100 years.

And it's very different implications, I think, between these two.

Yeah.

Maybe I'm focused on the technical feasibility question a bit more because I'm thinking, well, this creates a deadline by which we have to have figured out a bunch of stuff like deciding whether we're like being able to coordinate to decide whether we're going to go ahead with it or not, or figuring out some way to do it safely.

I guess on the falsifiability point, I guess there's been a lot of slippage.

There's been a lot of vagueness about exactly what people are describing.

And I think this is as true of me as anyone.

I think I used to talk a lot about timelines to AGI.

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