Rob Wiblin

speaker

5,091 appearances 15 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2021 last heard 6 Aug

Rob Wiblin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 13 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #250 – Toby Ord on where AGI timelines go wrong · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

Exactly.

Yeah, okay.

I mean, I guess an example, Yoshua Bengio's project, I guess that feels like very sidelined and a bit irrelevant right now.

And I guess, you know, if progressive self-improvement works for Anthropic next year, it probably will feel a little bit irrelevant.

But you're right, over like four or eight years, if people become like gradually more worried, there's like opportunities to get more funding to attract talent because people think the dominant paradigm is misguided.

I mean, yeah, I don't know how long it would take for that to really pay off.

Oh my God.

I really messed up.

Yeah, I wish I could go back.

And 50% haircut is just like actually not that big relative to the differences between projects that already exists.

So the top upvoted comment on your broad timelines piece, actually on multiple different forums, was this reply from Ryan Greenblatt, former guest of the show, great commentator.

I guess he was like, I agree with basically what you said in this post, except I don't quite like go towards the conclusion.

So I agree with many particular points in this post and the apparent thesis, but also think most people should focus on short timelines, contrary to the apparent implication of the post.

The reasons why are short timelines have more leverage.

And this isn't just because they're more neglected now, but also because it's easier to target approaches towards shorter timelines where less has changed about the world.

Short timelines are riskier.

It gives some reasons for that.

And three, it's easier to operate in near mode.

I guess it's easier to have like more concrete thoughts about what to do and what will be useful when targeting short timelines.

And it's maybe also like more psychologically healthy to try grappling with the world as it is now.

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