Rob Wiblin

speaker

5,091 appearances 15 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2021 last heard 6 Aug

Rob Wiblin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 13 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.

Appearances

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #250 – Toby Ord on where AGI timelines go wrong · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

Theory would predict that they are becoming like that.

And I perceive them as becoming like that.

Yeah.

How much of a discount is this on prospects of getting recursive self-improvement or AGI?

It's quite hard to assess.

Because if it is just a thing of like, well, they're 20% worse than you think, then you're like, we'll just wait three months and then they will be as good.

You know what I mean?

Because they're improving so much.

You're like, well, this only creates a small delay, basically.

If it's something more fundamental that they're heading in the wrong direction, they're trending in the wrong direction, and this thing isn't getting fixed because we don't have ways of getting them to be more precise in this respect.

To close out, coming back to the broad timelines philosophy, do you think people in the audience, if they want to be working on making AI go better, to what extent does it imply that each person should be thinking, I want to do something that is useful across many different possible timelines, something that's useful if it comes in 2030, 2035, 2040?

Or does it more imply that we should have a portfolio across lots of different people and people should spread out working on different projects that pay out optimally at different points in time?

Do you have an idea?

My guest today has been Toby Ord.

Thanks so much for coming back on the 80,000 Hours Podcast, Toby.

80,000 Hours Podcast · What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026? – Rob Wiblin · 4 Aug 2026 podcast

Earlier this year, I put out what might just be the worst timed thing I've ever published.

I set out to explain why everyone was again feeling bearish about AI and people's timelines to AGI were getting longer and longer.

And just as I was wrapping up the research for it, everything changed.

Vibes did a hard 180-degree turn.

Take famed programmer Andrej Karpathy, for example.

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