Rob Wiblin

you know, we kind of already have AGI.

People keep moving the goalposts.

We keep making, like, cool new products.

And, like, people aren't accepting that it's AGI.

And they, like, aspire to something higher.

And I thought that was funny because, like, you know, the old school, singulitarian, futurist definition of AGI is this very extreme thing.

But I think, like, VCs...

have an instinct to sort of call something AGI that is like GPT-5 is AGI or like something just much milder.

And so I think this creates a situation where people feel like they've gotten a lot of evidence that AGI isn't a very big deal and like doesn't change much because like we already have AGI or we're gonna have it next year or we got it like two years ago and like, you know, look around us, nothing much is changing.

And so I think there's this expectation where whether or not we get AGI in the next few years, a lot of people are starting to not really care about that question.

They still expect the next 25 years and the next 50 years to play out kind of like the last 25 years or the last 50 years where...

You know, there's a lot of technological change between 2000 and 2025, but it's like a moderate amount of change.

And they kind of expect that in 2050, there will be a similar amount of change as there was between 2000 and 2025, even if they think that we're going to get AGI in 2030.

They think AGI is just like what's going to drive that sort of continued mild improvement.

Whereas I think that there's a pretty good chance that by 2050, the world will look as different from today as today does from the hunter-gatherer era.

It's like 10,000 years of progress rather than 25 years of progress driven by AI automating all intellectual activity.

Yeah, so I would say on the...

The sort of standard mainstream view, if you ask a normal person on the street what 2050 will look like, or if you ask a standard mainstream economist,

I think they would think, well, the population is a little bit bigger.

We have somewhat better technologies.