Rob

We talked about running before.

Anyway, anyway.

How is that?

I mean, because you're in such good shape, Rob.

I know.

I'm not entirely shocked.

Oh, I know you do.

Yep.

But I'll still go to battle.

I'll still go to battle.

Samuel Cherub is the distinguished chair in Russia and Eurasia policy at the Iran Corporation and one of the most influential voices in the US policy debate on how the war in Ukraine should end.

He's argued for a negotiated settlement since early in the war, sticking with that position even when it has been highly unfashionable in DC and attracted heated criticism.

He's been specializing in Russia-Ukraine relations for decades, speaks both Russian and Ukrainian, and in 2017 wrote, Everyone Loses, The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.

If anything, I would say an understatement in hindsight.

Welcome back to the show, Samuel.

Thanks for having me, Rob.

Your most recent piece, Europe's Next War, the Rising Risk of a NATO-Russia Conflict, argues that the risk of a direct NATO-Russia confrontation could actually be higher after a ceasefire in Ukraine, which I think to many people will seem kind of counterintuitive.

It's somewhat counterintuitive to me.

So let's start with a big picture question.

I guess, how seriously should we take the risk, the probability of a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia?