Rob

And so the way to like deter them is to pre-commit to say, as soon as there is any violation, all of these things automatically come back into place.

And I think, did I read your proposal right there?

they would in fact come into place automatically or like you would need to vote them down rather than vote them up basically so that they, I guess someone would have to adjudicate, I suppose, whether the ceasefire has been violated.

But has that approach been used in other ceasefires successfully?

Yeah.

I think part of your model is the porcupine defense model, which I guess is during the period of a ceasefire, as I understand it, you're thinking the West would say, we will only supply Ukraine with weapons that would be useful for defending and retaining territory, not for regaining territory.

But that would immediately flip if the ceasefire were violated by Russia.

Then we would start rearming them with materials that they could potentially use to regain territory from Russia.

Is that the idea?

What sort of weapons can you use to defend territory?

Are we talking like landmines or things that prevent vehicles from traveling?

That's right.

So as I understand it, over the last three years, four years, despite a lot of fighting, there's been relatively little territory exchanged given the amount that's been going on.

In a sense, the technological equilibrium or the military equilibrium is quite advantageous for someone who's defending territory.

I don't know the specific details.

But if that is generally the case...

Could it be the case that during the ceasefire, if we do supply an enormous amount of defensive equipment to Ukraine, that they could bolster whatever frontiers they end up on such that it just would become like... I mean, I heard that one reason why it was difficult for Ukraine to reclaim territory was that basically Russia put up landmines everywhere.

They just made it incredibly difficult to reclaim space.

It's just like you lose so many staff, it takes so long.

Can Ukraine basically use that strategy to their advantage, making the ceasefire?