Robert Armstrong

speaker
1,703 appearances 12 recordings 3 series first heard Oct 2025 last heard 17 Sep

Robert Armstrong’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months
3 · Jan OctJan 26AprJulnow

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 12 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 3.

Appearances

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The underlying trend is not improving.
It was very emphatic.
And he also said something interesting, which was he doesn't think the fact that real wage growth growth is slowing means that inflation is gonna slow.
And that is the data series that a lot of people who are dovish points to.
They say
Wage growth is slowing, inflation will follow.
He came out and said, Look, I don't think wage growth is a very good indicator of future inflation.
So he sort of took the dovish arguments off the table in an interesting way.
And markets immediately got the message.
This is a hawkish message being sent.
He's giving a characterization of the economy in which it's very clear that the Fed has to be biased towards tightening, not loosening.
And markets immediately changed their stance.
Now,
You might ask a philosophical question.
Did he just give forward guidance?
But in a roundabout way without talking about the future?
You could have a a kind of d philosophical debate about that.
But uh the the message was hawkish and markets got it.
It's not a simple landscape that you just sketched.
The first thing would I say is I don't think
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