Robert Armstrong

Yes.

Rick Reeder is not a toady.

With a small number of exceptions, Trump has appointed for loyalty rather than competence.

Yes.

You could argue within the case of Rubio or possibly Besant that's not true.

But as a general rule, the main thing about getting appointed to something important in the Trump administration is saying yes.

First reaction, is it going to actually happen?

As far as I know, the threatened tariffs on any country that trades with Iran have not happened.

We had a tweet from the president that was happening.

It then just drifted to wherever presidential tweets go when they're not with us.

So...

So, you know, the rhetoric is pretty strong.

There was the bizarre text to the leader of Norway.

It seems pretty serious.

And markets are reacting.

But the hard first question you always have to ask is, is this a case of real strategic boldness a la...

Venezuela?

Or is this a bunch of talk?

Like so many other adventures or near adventures have been in Trump's world of trade.

And it's very hard to tell at the outset.