Robert Armstrong

Okay, let me frame this.

Let me steal a way of framing this from someone else.

Ian Bremmer, who's one of these people who sort of talks about geopolitical risk for a living.

I think his company's called Eurasia Group.

That's right.

Anyway, he had this short video that I think sums this up really well.

He talked about the contrast between

between taco and Fafo.

Taco being Trump always chickens out and Fafo being fuck around and find out.

And some countries get the taco treatment and some countries get the Fafo treatment.

And his point was that the weak...

get FAFO, and the strong get taco.

In other words, countries that put up a little bit of resistance, Brazil, China, Russia to a degree, actually taco is the most common outcome.

If countries show weakness or are too weak to protect themselves, like Venezuela, they see bold Trump.

They see FAFO Trump.

So we might ask at this point,

Is Europe going to be strong in response, in which case we might expect TACO and the situation to stabilize and cool off?

Or do they get into a characteristically European mode of tripping over their own feet and their own internal political squabbles, come with a weak and divided response, in which case they get FAFO?

Right?

The hard side of Trump.