Robert Armstrong

So I'm not sure that's true, but I think it's a kind of intriguing way to think about it.

Right.

Right.

And I would bet that you are right, that this is a situation where Trump will be prepared to back off, but only if...

Europe shows willingness to up the ante.

Yeah, I love the anti-coercion instrument.

It's like a special axe they keep in a box and

It just means Europe is committed to a lot of global principles and

of kind of fair and reciprocal trading with its trade partners.

And I think basically what the anti-coercion instrument does is release them from those commitments.

So they are, it basically says, it's a situation where you've been nasty to us and we can be nasty right back.

God, you're asking me to make a political prediction here.

You know, you haven't lost a lot of money historically...

betting against Europe's ability to put up a unified front.

They have a very consensus-driven system where a small number of defectors can prevent unified action.

So they really have to be pushed up to the edge.

But I think that this does feel different.

And I think it not only feels different in the way you talked about it being offensive, the president of the United States feels more and more erratic, right?

You know, the constant provocations, the tone out of the White House has changed.

The tone of the spokespeople have changed.