Robert Kaplan

speaker

231 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard Apr 2025

Robert Kaplan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Odd Lots · Rob Kaplan on How the Fed Will Think about the Tariffs · 10 Apr 2025 podcast

is it slows activity.

If I'm a consumer thinking about taking an action, I might pause it.

If I'm a I can tell you talking to companies, they're not saying no, but they're saying not now.

They have already had other uncertainties they're dealing with in their business, how to approach AI, which use cases for AI spending will work.

They have other issues that they're they're always wrestling with.

And I think all this does is cause them to be more careful, pause actions they might have otherwise taken.

And I don't think you want that to go on indefinitely.

All right.

So at the Fed back the headline, uh what I'm worried about is full employment and price stability.

Stock market going down substantially does not by itself necessarily cause me to do anything other than I'm I'm aware of it.

Credit spreads beginning to gap out gets my attention more because I'm concerned that that in fact would be an amplifier.

of a potential slowdown, i.e., businesses might not fire people because their stock is down, but they might start to if they see their business slowing and credit spreads widening and they're worried about financeability.

So I'm watching that, still not acting.

Well, normally if you see a potential demand shock and the soft data, which is what we're seeing, weaken, but the hard data is still hanging in there, you might start thinking if you didn't have an inflation issue, you might think about taking some action.

But the Fed does have an inflation issue.

And so I think you'll see the Fed, as we said, be more reactive.

And so

That there is a flowing and you're gonna wanna see it the Fed to act more than just an inching up in the unemployment rate.

You start seeing a much more dramatic move up, and then you're gonna realize that we could be entering into a demand shock.

Which would actually be disinflationary, which might offset part of this supply shock.

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