Robert Kaplan

speaker

231 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard Apr 2025

Robert Kaplan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Odd Lots · Rob Kaplan on How the Fed Will Think about the Tariffs · 10 Apr 2025 podcast

Subject to cash flow.

They've been pressured by shareholders to return more capital.

And costs to drill have gone up and tariffs will increase costs to drill more.

And so the industry will drill at one level if the price is $80, but it's going to drill at a lower level, all things being equal if prices get into the 50s or 60s.

And so I think we may well find over this next year that actually the level of drilling activity doesn't increase.

And I think people who are drilling are going to be more careful, particularly as the prices come down.

You see OPEC.

I think the US may have more success pressuring OPEC and Saudi Arabia to produce more.

And we will in this country make it easier to permit a refiner, we'll make it easier to build transmission.

So I think the price will come down, is coming down and may stay down, but it may not be because of more US drilling.

It may be because of demand falling off because of concern about tariffs, and also because OPEC actually producing more, probably under some influence from the uh Trump administration.

That's right.

And you've seen the reason for that trend you just described is prices were higher in twenty one and twenty two.

That led to more drilling.

As prices moderate and they're actually lowering now, I think you'll see more tepid activity as you just described.

Fifteen through twenty one.

for me.

So Texas is a very large exporting state, and we did an enormous amount of work at the Dallas Fed on the impact of tariffs.

And I probably in those years read every tariff paper that I could get my hands on.

And what I what we concluded, and uh me and my team concluded, is tariffs.

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