Robert Malley

I will never look back at this war as a victory, but I do think there's at least now a way to end the war

open the Strait of Hormuz under terms that would still have to be dealt with, and guaranteeing that Iran is not in a position to try to dash for a bomb.

If those are the objectives, I think those could be met.

If the objectives are changing the nature of the regime, stopping it from developing ballistic missiles, stopping it from developing drones, stopping it forever to enrich uranium, those objectives are impossible.

But again, if their objectives are more modest, they are achievable, and they would have been achievable even without the war.

And that's obviously a great question.

In the short term, I think we're left with an Iran that will feel emboldened, that will feel that it was vindicated in its approach, that it was able to stand up not just to the strongest military in the world, but also to the strongest military in the region.

Israel, which is also one of the strongest militaries in the world, and that it proved, thanks to its asymmetric form of power and its resilience, that it sustained those formidable militaries.

And you now have in power in Iran a group of people.

They're more militaristic.

They're probably in some ways a more hard line.

I don't particularly like that term, but let's use it for convenience sake.

Those are the people who will be in power.

But what I was saying earlier, I think, is still true, which is whatever rush that this group will get from having survived the war, how long will that rush last?

When?

Six months, a year, two years after the war ends, they have to contend with a populace that was very upset even before the war.

because of the economic conditions.

There's going to be great unrest when they see that the basic necessities of everyday life cannot be met by this regime.

And so strong regime, hardline regime, but a regime that's going to face very, very tough, perhaps existential questions, which will become even more existential when the war ends.

Listening to what President Trump has said and what some of the background briefings have indicated, it sounds like the U.S.