Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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They clearly think there's a political upside in looking tough.
Chapter 2: What is the current status of the Iran war initiated by Trump?
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It's almost three months since Donald Trump began the Iran war. But is there any chance now that America can actually win it? Or does the US president need to walk away and accept he achieved few of his shifting objectives? Today, Robert Malley, the lead negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, on how the quagmire is similar to the Vietnam war and what can be done to end it.
Chapter 3: What are the potential outcomes of Trump's military strategy against Iran?
I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Robert, President Trump, he is continually threatening Iran with a full-scale assault if it doesn't reach an acceptable deal before, of course, then backing down. It's becoming like a never-ending cycle at this point, isn't it?
It is. And as I'm trying to do, but I found most impossible to achieve, is to ignore everything the president says, because the same day he'll say that, he'll say that we are an inch away from a deal. He'll say that there's no need for a deal because Iran has been vanquished. And he'll also say that the Iranian leaders with whom he's dealing are very smart.
Getting very close to making a deal. And if we can do that where there's no nuclear weapons, we will be probably satisfied also. I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support, where the doctor walks in and says, sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living. We're going to end that war very quickly. They want to make a deal so badly.
It's going to happen, and it's going to happen fast. Well, we hit them very hard, but we may have to hit them even harder, but maybe not.
So... Pick your poison or your choice among all those statements. I think what really matters is what he'll decide to do in the coming days. And at this point, I would surmise it's as likely as we'll reach a deal as it is that we are headed towards another round of warfare.
Gosh, all right, yes. And he changes his mind and his objectives continually, daily, hourly. He communicates them through his social media accounts. platform, often very long, rambling posts. Just tell me, what do you think Iran makes of all of that? How does it perceive this?
Well, I mean, I suspect that they don't take it as seriously as it is at the beginning because there have been so many of these announcements that have not been followed up. I think every time he threatens utter destruction at this point, it's part of the background noise. I mean, not that they don't
fear that at some point they might be victims once again of massive attacks, but there's no correlation in their mind between what the president does, thinks, and what he might do.
So I suspect that they are just as prepared for a possible resumption of hostilities, and they've had time to do whatever they could to try to maximize their own retaliation and minimize their own losses, but also preparing themselves for the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough if that's what the president decides he would rather do.
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Chapter 4: How does the Vietnam War relate to the current situation with Iran?
So it's not comparable to that extent. What is comparable is the huge asymmetry between the metrics that the U.S. likes to point to. How many bridges have been blown up? How many people have been killed? What's the economic loss that Iran has suffered? And all of that, if you go back and look at the history books, those are the kinds of metrics.
that President Johnson, President Kennedy, their respective secretaries of defense would like to tout and say, look how well we're doing, and yet... They were not winning the war because their war had objectives that the Viet Cong, the Vietnamese, could thwart at every turn. Same here. The U.S. could have all the metrics it wants, and the president is very proud to recite them.
But when it comes to the genuine objectives of the war, which is either to change the nature of the regime in Iran or to make them utterly capitulate and surrender, those things are not going to be achieved. And And this is really, you know, in some ways the first globalized guerrilla warfare, that asymmetric warfare that Iran is waging.
In any such warfare, what matters is for the great power, the U.S., anything short of victory is defeat. And for the lesser power, the weaker power, in this case Iran, anything short of defeat is victory.
and if Donald Trump's decision ultimately is to begin bombing again, what would that achieve, do you think, that the first 37 days of US strikes didn't?
What would be the point? It would be more of the same. And again, I don't want to underestimate the fact that Iran is suffering immensely and that the regime after the war is going to have a very hard time addressing the needs of its ordinary citizens. And so the time will come where there will be a reckoning in Iran. But again, just take a picture of the war itself.
Yes, the US could bomb more bridges and more electrical infrastructure and more petrol infrastructure, all of which, or some of which at least, would qualify as war crimes. So all of it would make Iran suffer more economically.
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Chapter 5: What challenges does the US face in negotiating with Iran?
It would not bend its political will. As of the time we speak, the indications are perhaps there's a better chance for diplomacy. But we know that we've been here before. Many times the mediators have said we're closed to a deal. And many times at the last minute, the US has pulled the rug from underneath the feet of the diplomats and said, not good enough. We're not going to sign.
And it's straight up a moose. I mean, that's a huge problem. Of course, it's having an economic impact around the world, including on Iran. How is that solved?
Well, first, I mean, where we are as of the moment we speak, it's a situation of neither war nor peace, but countless innocent victims. And those victims are people not just in the Gulf, not just in Iran, certainly not just in the United States. They are all over the world because they're paying for higher energy costs. shortages of fertilizers, shortages of food.
And this is going to have a cascading effect. So many people are paying the price for war that the U.S. unlawfully started, and that has not ended yet for them because the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Yes, it's imposing a cost on Iran, but it believes that by asserting its authority over the strait, it will be able to impose some kind of post-war mechanism
through which it will extract, call it of toll, call it some kind of financial benefit that may be distributed among Gulf Arab countries, but it believes that it will get something out of the Strait of Hormuz that it was not getting before in terms of economic relief.
It certainly won't be enough to make up for the losses that they've incurred, but long term they believe that that's a strategic asset that the war didn't invent, but that the war handed them and they're not about to give up.
Well, Robert, one of the aims of this war was, according to Donald Trump, to ensure Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Now, of course, you were instrumental in securing the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran in the Obama administration.
There really are only two alternatives here. Either the issue of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon is resolved diplomatically through a negotiation, or it's resolved through force, through war.
So you tell me, can a deal be done again? Would Tehran negotiate again for a deal like that?
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