Robert Matthew
speaker
52 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2011
last heard Dec 2011
Robert Matthew’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
But for these low levels of evidence, like 2 sigma, which the physicists have turned their back on in this particular case, it does make a difference.
And the scary thing is that although the physicists routinely sort of turn their back on mere 2 sigma level of evidence,
Most scientists regard a two-sigma level of evidence as representing a really good strength of evidence, that they really are onto something, and that is a publishable result.
And that is basically a very worrying phenomenon that's very widespread throughout science.
Yes, that's right.
And it's definitely the case that five sigma level of evidence is more impressive than just two sigma.
But it's far from clear to me that they're doing it for the right reasons.
I think too many physicists and scientists in general are laboring under the misconception that when they've got a two sigma level of evidence, they've got a sort of 95% confidence that the result they've got isn't a fluke.
It doesn't mean that.
And in fact, in some areas of science,
They're beginning to discover this, like in clinical science, in medicine.
You would expect, if there's a 5% chance that the result is a fluke, that about 1 in 20 of medical studies just fall by the wayside when people try to replicate them.
But the actual failure rate is alarmingly higher than that.
In some cases, it's over 80%.
80% failure rate.
So that should have been warning people that there's something wrong with the standard interpretation of these sigma levels.
But unfortunately, this issue keeps being swept under the carpet.
Nobody seems to want to address it.
And I can't help feeling one of the reasons for that is that most scientists don't have access to something like the Large Hadron Collider, where they can just spend a few more years...
gathering colossal amounts of data and analyzing it.
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