Robert Tipp
speaker
51 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2019
last heard Jun 2019
Robert Tipp’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And, of course, in the slower-growing economies of Europe and Japan, they are sub-zero.
So people are paying to store their money in those jurisdictions.
And, of course, they're getting over 2% in the U.S.
The dollar is creeping higher.
And that's probably an uncertainty.
sustainable configuration over the long run, you're going to see convergence.
And it's probably not entire convergence, but movement of convergence over the longer term.
And then, of course, at some point when we have a slowdown in the economy, the Fed will probably be forced to cut rates substantially and keep them substantially lower than they are now for a significant amount of time.
So in other words, the average Fed funds rate may end up being one and a half over the long run or maybe even lower than that.
I think investors may find that investing in a 10-year or a 30-year or securities that are pricing off of a 10-year or a 30-year is what gets them the best performance over time.
It's not an exciting environment, but the environment we've been in the last handful of years, it's not a bad environment.
You need to remain fully, in our view, engaged in the markets at your strategic allocation level.
to fixed income, the lower risk and the higher risk products.
And that's probably going to have the best result rather than trying to fiddle at the front end with exactly timing the Fed.
We're seeing a bit of a deceleration in the U.S.
economy, and we've seen inflation drop away from their target.
So there's a real tug of war where the traditional economists are saying, hey, unemployment's low, wages are accelerating a little bit, we're going to get inflation.
But to a practitioner, non-economist like me, I'm looking at inflation, ex-food, energy, and shelter, and that's actually less than 1%, and it's decelerating.
So what I would guess is unless we see a change in these dynamics towards something that we haven't seen for a really, really long time and therefore I kind of think is unlikely, which is some kind of price-wage spiral towards higher prices that people are imagining, unless you see that, I think the Fed is going to end up kind of drip-feeding these eases because they're failing to hit their inflation target.
And presumably they see some relationship between inflation and their monetary policy and growth.
Showing 21–40 of 51 · page 2 of 3
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